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Thursday, July 31, 2014

The Cold Calculating Winning Methods of the Oakland Athletics (And why it might never work)



The Oakland Athletics are the best team in baseball, but see blood in the water because they clearly aren’t done upgrading their roster. They traded for Sam Fuld, they traded with the Cubs for more pitching and the biggest news of all, nabbed Jon Lester from the Red Sox and gave away popular powerarm Yoenis Cespedes---even though Cespedes still had some time left on his contract. The low-budget Athletics is the most active team in the trading deadline hands-down, and this is without the financial heights of the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and even middle-of-the-pack Atlanta Braves.

Billy Beane and company see 2014 as their ultimate opportunity to actually truly win it all. They have devised a nearly flawless team that sees struggles only in the 8th and 9th innings in terms of defending the lead. The usually powerhouse AL East has taken several steps back this season, the Texas Rangers are an atrocious mess, and even the Detroit Tigers don’t have the devastating presence of years past. The As however would have World Series Home Field Advantage (Stupid, stupid move by MLB, but whatever) thanks to the All-Star Game and are 5 games above everyone else not in their division.

That being said, what is the cost of sacrificing locker room charisma and chemistry in favor of a superior piece of the puzzle? This is where the grit vs. numbers debate rages in the world of Major League Baseball.

Cespedes was a well-known presence, a fan-favorite, a popular player in the league, and also had helped put Oakland on the mainstream baseball culture with his back to back Home Run Derby wins and his surprising amount of power. To add to that, he has a cannon of an arm and nearly broke Twitter when he made the play of the year by launching a baseball the length of a football field in a few seconds. And then did it again just 24 hours later with yet another unbelievable play. The Oakland Athletics became the talk of the baseball town because of him. He was giving the As a personality, an identity, as opposed to just a team Beane was cooking up.

Here’s the other side of the coin however. Cespedes is a .260 hitter, he hits for lots of power but doesn’t pull the Trout/Cabrera numbers. He is gone in 2015 unless the As can convince him to pull off an Evan Longoria-like deal (Which to this day surprises me the Rays got it done). So come post-2015 he will hound the free agency market for a better contract. So Oakland sees that they can get Lester, go all the way, and let him go afterwards being satisfied with a deep playoff run and maybe even a World Series. The last two seasons have seen the Tigers better the As because of superior pitching. But after bolstering their already-powerful rotation with Lester AND Jeff Samardzija AND Jason Hammel? How can you not pick the Athletics to win it all?

Because when you shift a winning formula so many times the variables can dampen the results. This holds true in baseball much more than any other sport on the planet, even though it does affect all sports. Team chemistry plays a major part in the success of a team. The Ravens carried the grit-and-guts style of defensive play throughout the last two decades, which explains why Ray Lewis was able to win a ring back in 2000 and again in 2013. The San Antonio Spurs’ manhandling of the Miami Heat was a decade work in progress with their extensive reach to European players that exchanges glory for winning. Even in the World Cup you had the Colombian football team rise from the depths of non-existent to suddenly lifting an entire nation for several weeks with their balanced and unselfish attack.

But in baseball, the numbers rarely ever tell you the true story. Pedro Martinez is the best pitcher I have ever seen in my life, even though he is well short of the magical 300 wins stat usually associated with a Hall of Famer career. The Tampa Bay Rays in 2012 ranked 27th in batting, but missed the playoffs by just a couple games and were the best-looking team overall in August and September (On pace for over 100 wins if Longoria had been healthy the entire year). Sam Fuld is currently batting .263 with 2 HRs while playing for his third team in two years---yet is quietly having one of the best summers amongst everyone in baseball and is even ranked in the top 5 in WAR. 

Chemistry is what propels the Rays, as they have a carefree, laid-back, wait-and-see approach that has helped them a lot since 2008--despite playing with few superstars. Team chemistry is what adds value to Sam Fuld despite never having the numbers can improve any team he is placed on because of his 155% effort he gives and because of his ability to make spectacular plays in the outfield on a daily basis. The Rays were suffering without him in the first quarter of the 2014 season, because they lacked the bite necessary to compete in the AL East. Lastly just the presence and intimidation of Pedro Martinez was a requirement for the Red Sox back in the early 2000s when they were inching closer and eventually broke their fabled curse.

And what better recent example do we have than the 2013 version of the Boston Red Sox? They overcame a tragedy and a citywide shutdown while pursuing the terrorists and propelled the city to the first title clinched in Boston since the 1910s. And this was with half the talent from the 2011 team that was expected to win it all. But the chemistry in the 2011 squad was shattered, broken, and tarnished, which led to the September collapse that we all know (and love). The 2013 squad in the meantime, led by the now-prima-donna David Ortiz, constantly played from behind, constantly fought and sprinted their way for every base, and eventually took the World Series from the Cardinals whom arguably was the better-looking team. The Los Angeles Dodgers of today has been essentially the same team the past couple of years but it took the run-like-Hell-yet-always-have-fun approach of Yasiel Puig to give the Dodgers a personality while also make them a huge, huge threat in the National League.

The Cespedes trade works on paper as the As could not keep him much longer, and because Lester has playoff experience tied to his resume which would be very beneficial if they happen to take on the Detroit Tigers again. The Athletics are a team built on statistics, the easy-to-read ones and the deeper stats that only the truly mathematically gifted can appreciate. However, what if all this trading tarnishes the locker room chemistry? We all know how the Athletics operate but how nerve-racking must it be to constantly play with the potential of being shipped for a few prospects on a daily basis? How is it even possible to maintain a consistent culture while the pieces keep changing? Grant Balfour flourished under the Balfour Rage 9th inning, and the Athletics fanbase was in love with the Metallica-inspired final innings. How is Oakland going to handle the Boston stench of Lester?

Can the lack of World Series appearances by the Athletics be tied to their style of building a team? Only time will tell now because as of now, the Athletics are by far the best-looking team on paper. They can hit, they can still field (Sam Fuld’s return helps a lot), they can definitely pitch (Keep an eye on Samardsija’s career), and there really isn’t a more complete team out there besides potentially the Los Angeles Dodgers. But can the inability to develop a long-lasting team damage and break the team? Beane and friends have been lucky to not suffer locker room controversies of any sort in the past decade, however how could Oakland handle one without a team leader or a team representative? These sort of things can never be measured or analyzed or drawn out in mathematics, it can only be witnessed. 

Cespedes could have been that locker room glue for all we know. I personally would never have traded him, as he was the face of the franchise, and in my opinion you never, ever trade the face (or one of the faces) of the franchise. I feel like too much was sacrificed for a pitcher that is going to leave in a few months. But if the Oakland Athletics win the entire thing, it would be because of this trade.



But if they don’t even make it to the final dance, it will also be because of this trade.



Like I said before, only time will tell what is about to happen in Oakland.

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