I am like a kid on Christmas upon hearing that Major League Baseball is expanding its playoff system to two Wild Card teams that have to play each other on a one-game playoff. I have discussed (here) this playoff expansion (here) many many times (here) and now my dream (oh and here too) has become a reality. The craziness that is playoff baseball is about to get amped up even more by giving more teams a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Teams in nasty-nasty divisions like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Marlins, and Nationals will have an added layer of hope, while lower-market teams like the Pirates, Royals, Indians, and As will have more incentive to not just throw the season by making a stronger push for a longer period of time as an extra slot remains open for the taking. A third place team will still have a shot at the World Series which leaves the door open for a playoff push for a far longer time. Now, here I am discussing all the pros, cons, and arguments for/against this new change that is sure to re-shape the world of baseball for decades to come. In case you haven’t noticed, this is a very big deal.
Let’s start with some more pros. This extra small round of baseball will mean much more potential for classic games with everything on the line similar to what happened (You know....the day I always talk about) last season, and what happened with recent tie-breakers like the Padres/Rockies, Tigers/Twins, and going farther back the Cubs/Giants classic in 1998. The extra Wild Card format means that there is much more emphasis on winning the division—which means the division leaders unless they are explosively far from the pack will not just rest players and throw away games in September in fear of dropping down to a one-and-done scenario. Those division rivalries will have even more depth late in the season—and if the scheduling team is smart they will do what the NFL does and end the season with each team facing their divisional foes and/or rivals.
The road to the World Series will become even harder for the Wild Card teams, which is a breath of fresh air for those division winners that wind up getting trampled by the momentum of a Wild Card runner (Phillies are nodding politely right now). Now you have to sacrifice your best pitcher for the one-game playoff and immediately throw yourself in the pit of facing the #1 seed. Now, this season the Wild Card winner gets the first two home games but this will disappear in 2013. Starting in 2013, momentum will not be the only thing you need—sheer willpower will also be a requirement. You may have to look at your #4 and #5 starters for support, something that has not been done in playoff baseball in forever.
Baseball is the toughest, roughest, nastiest sport to get into the playoffs. Adding two Wild Card teams will make the breathing a little easier, but will have fans care for a longer period of time. Let’s admit the truth: our team is third/fourth place in late August, our care drops much like the care towards the Miami Dolphins after September. But, with the extra Wild Card, the fans can still dream, can still imagine the possibility of sneaking in to play against the Division Winners. Teams that are usually good but never good enough like the Blue Jays, Indians, Angels, Dodgers, and Mets will be able to threaten for a longer time.
Of course, there are cons. Imagine being in a nasty division in which you develop an excellent record, but you are still second place. Then comes a Wild Card challenger that comes from a marshmallow division (*cough*AL West*cough*) and beats you in said one-game playoff. Basically: sucks to be you. It gives you much more reason to try to knock off the division leader, but divisions like the AL East, NL East, and the NL Central make it quite a hassle to be king of the mountain. But you can look at it in the other direction: a team in an evil division like the AL East can have a shot at taking out a team that’s in a much smoother division (*cough*Rangers*cough*Angels*cough*Giants*cough*).
And thanks to ESPN, here are some more wonderful reasons why this new playoff system is going to work:
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Doug Kern, of ESPN's trusty Stats & Info group, went back and studied this. And, if the cutoff for what constitutes "contention" on Sept. 1 is 10 games (or approximately how far back the Cardinals and Rays were last year), here is what he determined:
• Last season, just in the National League alone, adding a second wild-card team would have meant that 11 teams would have headed into September "alive" instead of six. Big difference. Wouldn't you say?
• From 2003 to 2011, the average number of teams that would have found themselves "alive" on Sept. 1 was 20. And only once in all that time would that number have dropped below 19 (to 17, in 2008).
• And that drama would continue right down to the final day of the season. From 2003 to '11, 19 more teams would have found themselves within a game of a playoff spot on the final day under this system than under the old system.
• Finally, if you take in the entire wild-card era (including the strike-shortened 1995 season), only nine times out of 34 races would all five playoff spots in a particular league have been determined going into the final day. Under the current system, all the playoff spots were a done deal 21 times.
Oh, and one more thing. Just the race for the No. 2 wild-card spot alone would have produced many a dramatic finish.
We took a look at this on our own and found that, if we'd had this system in place since 1995, 24 of the 34 races for that spot would have been decided by three games or fewer -- and 12 of them would have been decided either by a margin of one game or in a 163rd-game tiebreaker.
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Thanks ESPN
Now, while I am stoked at this new playoff system, I will admit it’s still not perfect. If it honestly were up to me, I would cut the season just by a little (144-152 games) and then make it a best-of-three format. And the tension is still strong as you are two games away from losing your entire season. And do remember that one of the greatest moments in baseball history came from a best-of-three playoff. Bobby Thompson anyone?
But like I said before, I am still very much excited that baseball is making a change to benefit more fans, more teams, and make September baseball even more important than usual, and more relevant to the league as a while when compared to recent years. The Wild Card was an amazing addition back in 1994, and expanding it some more will continue baseball’s reign as the top postseason league in all American professional sports.
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