Conan O’Brien finally got a show back after that awful breakup with NBC. With Jay Leno being used as a scapegoat and the executives totally messing everything up in every single conceivable way, O’Brien’s dream of hosting the Tonight Show was extremely short-lived. Luckily, he quickly sparked a deal with TBS and as soon as his ban from television finished, he was heading to cable. Getting full creative control of his show, Conan’s new show was poised to make major ripples in the ratings competition amongst the late night hosts.
His first night was a solid smash hit. Over 4 million watched the premiere, which utterly destroyed the competition in cable and network television. Now everyone knew these numbers couldn’t sustain itself, especially under cable. But despite the show maintaining its Conan-esque quality (although I really miss the “lever” comedic bit) its ratings are not that-that high…even for cable. Conan’s numbers are weaker against not only Leno and Letterman (even Kimmel, my goodness), but even the Comedy Central powerhouse team of Stewart and Colbert. Nothing against the other shows, but Conan deserves better numbers. The number one reason why Conan isn’t producing Late Night ratings is because of its awful time slot--which has become very convoluted.
When everyone started going after Conan after his departure from NBC, I predicted and truly thought Comedy Central would be the absolute best fit for him. Comedy Central has been really reeling since the departure of the Dave Chappelle Show, and have desperately tried to fill those shoes. Notice all the comedians that got their own show very quickly without a truly strong established fanbase: Carlos Mencia, Nick Swarson, Demitri Martin, Jeff Dunham, Sarah Silverman (my personal favorite “spin-off” of Dave Chappelle Show), and Daniel Tosh (even though Tosh.0 has actually been a minor success story, but I don’t see it running much longer). Conan O’Brien already had an established rivalry against Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert (Huckabee anyone?), and throwing him into the network before (or after?) the political power hour would have been an incredible evening in television. This could have catapulted Comedy Central into popularity heights not reached since-----Rick James. Imagine this: 10:00 (Conan), 11:00 (Daily Show), 11:30 (Colbert Report).
But…..TBS got him. While I am a fan of TBS and all its reruns, I was not sure Conan would be the right fit. Look who he has to setup for: George Lopez. And now my prediction came true: Conan isn’t really raking in the numbers. While he is getting the young crowd, the hosts he is competing against also nab the young crowd---except it’s a much more rabid fanbase. Unlike Conan, the Comedy Central hosts actually have some political power and influence, further proving they are a force not to be reckoned with. The network Conan picked is wrong, and the time they picked is totally off.What is he doing going on before Lopez like an opening act?
In order to run a very successful talk show, you need a strong opener or a strong follower. Leno has been the exception, as his Tonight Show runs on a heavy dosage of history and a very dedicated fanbase; and also I do not want to even think about mentioning Fallon as a helper in his ratings. With Letterman, he has the much underrated Craig Ferguson following him. And in cable, you cannot think about Colbert without thinking about Stewart, and vice-versa. Conan has….George Lopez. Not only is Lopez a weak supporter (his show isn’t that good), but he tries to nab a totally different brand of audience. Let me offer a solution.
Why not bump Conan’s show to 10:00? There has never been a late night host to truly push for a Sweeps time slot---besides Jay Leno but that one was absolutely doomed from the start. The 10:00 hour usually does not contain shows with the highest marks, that usually goes to the 9:00 crowd. The Mentalist on CBS is the exception. But most of the time, 10:00 isn’t dominated by prime time. This is Conan’s chance to not only start before popular appealing-to-the-young-college-crowd hosts Stewart, Colbert, and Kimmel, but to try to attract a wider audience with its earlier appearance. While Conan is not clean-cut, he is no South Park or Family Guy, which does air much earlier than him. If that doesn’t work, there is one other solution.
Move him to midnight, and try to reach out to the viewers that had just finished watching Colbert and Stewart. I am not as big a fan on this move, but it’s much more logical than throwing him to 11:00 against some heavy late-night competition. The competition remains at the 11:30-midnight range with his nemesis Jay Leno and Leno’s Other Nemesis; but neither of the two can attract a young audience like Conan can. Plus, I really don’t see Lopez providing any ammunition to the midnight hour for TBS. Conan isn’t drowning or dying, but he isn’t exactly leading in viewers nor will he have a chance to grow an audience with the 11:00 cluster.
Bottom Line: TBS you have a good man on your network, but if you want him to unleash his full potential, get him out of that time slot. Not saying he can’t handle the competition, but I’m saying he is not going to attract your 18-34 crowd in a television world with Adult Swim, Stewart, Colbert all appearing at the same time. Pull him away from that muck, and allow him to stand out, and receive more attention. Otherwise, it will be tough for TBS to even come close to the 4 million that tuned in the first night. 4 million viewers on opening night means many people are aware of him and know him, they just need time to spend with him. At 11:00, it ain’t gonna happen.
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